The Ancient
Egyptians believed that time was somehow circular. It started and ended anew
with every reign. Whenever the old king died, primeval chaos would break out
throughout the land: war, famine, rebellion, epidemics and a very obnoxious plague of head
lice. Then the new Pharaoh would rise to the throne, and – as a sign of his
divine appointment – he would set the land mystically straight and return the
realm to Order. Upper and Lower Egypt would be happy. Inundation and harvest
would be optimal. Every man and woman knew their station. Until that king died
and the land would be plunged into chaos once again…
As we have
seen over the last few days, Modern Egypt has retained that notion… With this
minor difference that, instead of solving
the chaos, every new ruler seems to cause
a fresh bout of mayhem.
Today, Egypt
is back where it started two years ago, and once again we in the West are
applauding the change. And that, to tell the truth, astonishes me a little. For what is
the fact? The fact is that we are applauding those very same folks we found so appalling
a mere two years ago! Back in 2011, the Twitter Youth of Tahrir Square rose
against the Military Regime, and we scolded the Egyptian Army for being
despotic. All of the Western press and – slavishly in its wake – public opinion in Europa
and America burst out in euphoria, for here was a modern, secular movement of
dynamic clean-cut kids in a Muslim land, that stood up to military oppression
so as to get our kind of Western democracy, a state of law, unlimited internet
access, damsels in undress and affordable fast food restaurants. It was, our correspondents
never tired of telling us, a glorious Arab Spring, a sexy rebellion, run by the
young, beautiful, digitally savvy YouTube generation.
Well, Mubarak
fell, the military bowed its head to reality, and the Tahrir Twitterers got
their democracy. But it did not turn out as we had all hoped so ardently. There
was very little Peace on Earth for Everybody anywhere in sight. In big cities
and rural villages, Copts got lynched and their churches were burned down. In
provincial capitals soccer hooligans belonging to different shifts of society
took one another on in immense battles which left dozens of death on the
football field. And surely worst of all: when elections were held, not our
beloved Youtube Youth or their liberal city bourgeoisie parents won the
contest, but the Muslim Brotherhood and its even more radical Salafist cousins.
The former reaped 40 % of the vote; the latter 25 %; so that a plain two thirds
of the electorate voted the dreaded Islamic Conservatives. Those liberal
secular urban intellectual parties we love and admire so much, had trouble to
rake in 15 %...
Ooops… that
was not what the West had counted on.
You see: what
our expert correspondents, commentators, pundits and would-be prophets had
overlooked in their hurry to sing the praises of Arab Springtime, was that
beyond Cairo and Alexandria there is this little thing called the Egyptian Countryside, which is
inhabited by certain people called ‘peasantry’ (look up what that means onWikipedia) who do not have Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and 4th
generation smartphones, who often do not even have electricity or running water,
who speak no foreign languages and do not go to school in Paris and London, and
who firmly believe that the Holy Koran ought to have more say in the daily
running of things than the Constitution or the Declaration of Human Rights (both
of whose existence they probably ignore). And – minor detail – these funny people
make up roughly 80 % of the Egyptian population…
Fortunately
for us honest democrats, Mr Morsi, when coming to power, made a mess of things.
Fortunately as well, the military knew how to bide its time and await its
chances to return to the fray. The high courts, still packed with soldiers’ friends,
made sure to disband parliament in time and to declare the new Constitution invalid.
Wrong legislation at the wrong time kept the mood in the land boiling and broiling.
Corruption never stopped, tourists stayed away, prices rose as foreign currency
melted away… The Twitter Generation – or whatever it had turned into by now –
returned to Tahrir Square. Morsi sent the Police to get rid of them. And then
the Army came out in defence of the new rebellion, tilting the scales, and put Morsi
and the Muslim Brotherhood leadership under house arrest. This is called the
Second Revolution, but if we are honest we admit that it is of course a simple
military coup and a return to the Status Quo Ante, with the Muslim Brotherhood
now humiliated as the Military was humiliated back in 2011.
Once again
the West applauds.
We have not
learned from history or our previous mistakes…
Once again we
deceive ourselves that this sexy young liberal urban rich cosmopolitan educated
Western style shift of the big cities represents the broad masses of the
Egyptians. They do not. At best they represent 10 % of the population.
Our other
mistake is to think that this group is now coming out on top and will rule the
land. They will not. They are too few for that. If ever they get to rule, it
will merely be as stool pigeons for one or the other of the two main groups
that do possess the muscle to run things: the soldiers who have the guns and
the Islamists who have the numbers.
What is next?
Why, your guess is as good as mine. But seeing the above, allow me a small prophecy:
if there are indeed new elections, the soldiers will have to ban the Muslim
Brotherhood and the Salafists parties. For if they allow them to participate,
we will have the same outcome all over again! Get it through your heads: the
Egyptian countryside votes Islamic. And much as certain shifts of the
countryside electorate may have grown disappointed with President Mursi and his
government, I cannot believe that its entire 65 % share of the 2012 elections has
somehow melted away completely.
Egypt has
come full circle, and we are waiting for a new Pharaoh to restore peace and order.
But don’t
hold your breath until he does… It may be a while before he rises from the
dead…
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Ancient Egyptians Twittering... |